The International Monetary Fund published its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices", on 13 October 2026. The projections are based on statistical information available through 1 October 2026.
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, rising to 3.4% in 2027. Global headline inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026, easing to 4.1% in 2027. The report describes the global economy as resilient, but says that this resilience is increasingly uneven and costly, with energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain facing the most difficult outlook.
The IMF sees risks tilted to the downside: escalating conflicts, a reassessment of expectations around artificial intelligence, renewed trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities. Upside possibilities include stronger AI investment and productivity gains, and a lasting easing of geopolitical and trade tensions.
On policy, the report calls for rebuilding fiscal space, preserving monetary and financial stability, raising potential growth and deepening international cooperation. A chapter on cost-of-living crises finds that temporary, targeted income support is the most cost-effective protection, and that price-suppressing measures can cost 3 to 22 times more than targeted transfers. A further chapter examines corporate income taxation, including the cross-border effects of debt-financed tax cuts and the role of stronger anti-avoidance rules.
Source: International Monetary Fund