On 27 October 2026, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published BIS Bulletin No 140, "Building AI on credit: structures and spillovers". BIS Bulletins are written by BIS staff, and the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks.
According to the bulletin, capital expenditure by the five largest US hyperscalers is expected to reach more than $800 billion by the end of 2026, around 2.5% of US GDP. Gross bond issuance by these five companies reached $222 billion by September 2026, mostly at long maturities, amounting to more than 10% of long-term US Treasury issuance this year. Citing market sources, the bulletin adds that $75 to $100 billion of bonds and asset-backed securities linked to off-balance-sheet vehicles have been placed so far this year.
At the centre of these structures is a special purpose vehicle that owns a data centre, earns its income from the contracts it has signed and issues bonds or asset-backed securities. Lease commitments, guarantees and vendor support from a few large firms help the vehicles' debt obtain a stronger credit rating and draw in institutional investors. Banks provide construction financing to some vehicles and may also lend to private credit funds that invest in their debt.
The bulletin notes that contracting through an unconsolidated vehicle can allow companies to record the associated payments as operating expenses rather than debt-financed capital expenditure. It observes that leases that have not yet started are disclosed but not recorded as debt, and that guarantees are often recorded at little or no value until payments become likely. It cites a rating agency estimate of the largest hyperscalers' data centre lease commitments at $1.2 trillion by mid-2026, of which around $820 billion relate to leases that have not yet started, and states that closer monitoring and fuller disclosure of these commitments would help investors, rating agencies and supervisors assess the risks.
On the wider bond market, the bulletin finds that on 18 days in 2026 when AI-financing-related news reached markets, the US 10-year term premium rose by around 1.5 basis points after accounting for other market-moving factors, and the increase reversed within two trading days; investment-grade spreads did not change significantly. In 2026, hyperscaler bonds with maturities of 10 years or more accounted for about 24% of corporate issuance at those maturities and 13% of gross Treasury issuance, up from about 3% and 1.5% respectively in 2024. The bulletin states that sustained issuance at the current pace could make these spillovers larger and more persistent.